The War of Trade Models

There is an interesting debate going on in Europe about the likely consequences of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Much of the real debate is (or should be) about the proposed Investor-State dispute resolution (ISDS) and the desirability of regulatory harmonization when nations have different preferences about how these regulations should be designed. But there is also a fascinating numbers game going on, with alternative quantitative estimates deployed by pro- and anti-TTIP groups.

The studies used by the pro group tend to show positive, if small, GDP effects. Probably the best known among these is a study by Joseph Francois and his colleagues, according to which EU and US GDPs will rise by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, by 2027 (relative to the baseline scenario without TTIP). Francois et al use a standard computable general equilibrium model that assumes full employment and perfect competition (save for a few sectors where there are scale economies and monopolistic competition). Wisely, they stay away from some of the bells and whistles (e.g., induced learning and TFP gains) that have been used in the past to produce exaggerated benefits from trade agreements.

These results, however, have been challenged in a recent paper by Jeronim Capaldo. Capaldo uses a Keynesian model where output is demand-determined and finds that EU GDP would fall as a result of a decline in net exports. (But U.S. output would rise, since U.S. net exports increase.)

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El Futuro

Los «ideólogos», los que se han vendido a los ideólogos para ¿justificar? sus teorías y aquellos que no tienen capacidad para pensar por si mismos y deben repetir lo que dicen los demás se han empeñado en publicitarnos un futuro maravilloso.
La realidad, tozuda ella, se empeña en mostrarnos que el camino de esos ideólogos sólo conduce al desastre a la mayoría de los seres humanos.
Ah!, ¿pero es que hay futuro?

empleo
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The “iEverything” and the Redistributional Imperative

Monday, March 16, 2015

It’s now possible to sell a new product to hundreds of millions of people without needing many, if any, workers to produce or distribute it.

At its prime in 1988, Kodak, the iconic American photography company, had 145,000 employees. In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy.

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Consumo colaborativo

La Humanidad, los seres humanos,  siempre ha encontrado revulsivos para salir adelante en los peores momentos tal como demuestra la Historia.

Estamos viviendo uno de esos momentos oscuros por culpa de la codicia de un grupo reducido de lobbys económicos que quieren monopolizar la riqueza siguiendo el fin neoliberal de la acumulación.

A lo dicho en el post anterior de este blog, sumemos estás otras dos gráficas:

OXFAM2
Participación en la riqueza mundial del 1% más rico y del 99% más pobre de la población, respectivamente; las líneas discontinuas reflejan las previsiones basadas en la tendencia observada entre 2010 y 2014. En 2016 el 1% más rico de la población poseerá más del 50% de la riqueza mundial total.

OXFAM3
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